New Chinese year of photovoltaic power generation capacity will be more than one million kilowatts - China's statement to the media Renewable Energy Industries Association Mengxian Gan recently, suggesting Chinese PV market finally got started.
But at the same time, despite the current Chinese PV market has started, there will be great development in the future; but after PV market is still in its "infancy" in the markets and applications installed capacity of nuclear power and wind power far and belong to new energy sources, so the future development After the expansion, will inevitably encounter the same with today's wind power is difficult, and the core technology is protected by high tariff constraints and a series of problems.
Still has to import the core components
"Dependence on foreign imports of raw materials, products, dependence on foreign markets," the "two out" to make the plight of China PV industry suffered years of torment. Despite the smooth export of pride, but also there is a market cold embarrassment, after all, not a long-term dependence on foreign policy.
However, after years of development, "two out" of the situation in China PV industry has been fundamentally changed. Artes solar photovoltaic Limited (CSIQ.NASDAQ, hereinafter referred to as "Artes Sunshine Power") CEO Qu Xiaohua believes that the PV industry has shifted to domestic polysilicon raw materials, domestic demand is expected to have more than half of the raw material by domestic production, but also a large number of production capacity will continue to be released.
It seems that in Qu Xiaohua, China's PV industry chain has been very complete, from polysilicon feedstock to install photovoltaic systems, as well as glass, sealing film parts, Chinese have occupied world advantage. Therefore, China will undoubtedly become a major supplier of polysilicon.
Meanwhile, with the start of the domestic PV market, China's dependence on foreign markets will gradually weaken.
However, the chief researcher Jiang Qian energy sector investment adviser, told reporters, because the level of technology constraints, China has still not independent production of solar photovoltaic industry as the core device - high-purity polycrystalline silicon, can only rely on imports, so that the head of the upstream industry chain also out. Face of foreign manufacturers, led by the seven traditional crystalline silicon material suppliers, China low bargaining power. This situation has led to the high cost of the photovoltaic industry.
Therefore, even solve the problem of raw materials and markets, lack of core technology still makes China can not get rid of dependence on foreign countries. Moreover, with the growing domestic market in the future, this problem will become more prominent.
? grid, or to highlight the issue price
With the gradual expansion started with the scale of domestic PV market, with the same wind power grid difficult issues, will also reveal.
Despite the policy, the power grid enterprises shall purchase all its grid coverage, renewable energy and power generation projects online. In fact, there are photovoltaic grid-hard problem.
State Grid Corporation of China Energy Research Institute, deputy chief economist Rakesh Bhatia told this newspaper that the current installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation, Ningxia and other places of rapid growth, the national grid to take the same with wind power grid methods, namely the local thermal power bale transport. But to Bai Jianhua headache is the current PV is more unstable than wind power, "is now the clouds disappeared, the sun but also from time to time, is very unstable, and there is a big network of difficulty." Bai Jianhua told reporters.
Jiangxi Power Company engineer 彭莉萍 also said that solar photovoltaic energy belonging to poor regulation, diurnal variation, and changes in the seasonal weather conditions were interested in generating an impact, due to the grid-connected PV systems do not have the ability to peaking and FM, its ability to access the grid to accept a higher requirement.
On the other hand, the construction of photovoltaic power plants are also out of touch with grid construction planning. Rakesh Bhatia told the newspaper, while in previous years the rapid development of wind power, power projects around the upper hand when considering only local resources, without concern consumptive market, making the lack of coordination and construction of wind power grid construction. Some places even tap into the power grid, also appeared not to have power to send out embarrassing situation.
However, today's photovoltaic unfortunately staged "Yesterday Once More." Bai Jianhua said that the photovoltaic industry is developing too fast, and the interaction and coordination with the grid and very inadequate, making the new load is very clear, leading to the planning and construction of the power grid in a very passive situation.
Another major problem facing the PV tariff issue.Similarly with wind power is strikingly similar, photovoltaic power generation is also competing to lower prices in a number of central enterprises, staking din developed, each winner's bid offer low total orders colleagues gasped a breath.
Mengxian Gan told the newspaper that if tariff reflect reasonable costs plus a reasonable profit, the investor is bound enthusiastically; But if profit margins are low, are willing to lose money in exchange for a consideration of central enterprises have tickets can not be sustained.
"The price is too low, the state-owned enterprises have special resources to do it, but not private enterprise." Zhengrong Shi, Suntech's Chairman and CEO, said that although low bid 280MW PV project may be surface loss, deep-seated profit, but "private No such enterprise profitability. "
It is understood that with the recovery of the European photovoltaic market, the Chinese PV industry in addition to the opportunity to feel tremendous pressure outside. Italian government has already, from 2017 will no longer be the beginning of fiscal subsidies for photovoltaic power generation to pass the bill, then PV will be fully able to follow the market mechanism to grid parity, competition and thermal power and other enterprises. Similarly, Germany's PV installed capacity in 2010 that added 18 million kilowatts, while the global PV installed capacity of the new year is also only 40 million kilowatts.
"The Italian approach to China also made a very urgent task, because only six years," Mengxian Gan said, "As a photovoltaic manufacturing country, it is not only the continuation of the situation can not go on."
? escape the "second wind" destiny?
Although PV into the fast lane, but resulted in the wind power boom-bust of a series of questions, starting at the beginning of today's photovoltaic power generation, has already begun to reveal the signs. PV will like wind power, like experiencing a period of rapid development lags on turn down, quickly turn bad?
Mengxian Gan said grid wind power installed capacity last year was 31.08 million kilowatts, while the photovoltaic grid was more than 20 million kilowatts, far from the scale, many problems can be conducted after the scale revealed that these problems will be encountered after the market launch , so to take precautions.
China Electricity Regulatory Commission statistics show that in 2010, hydropower generation capacity of 401.3 billion degrees, 19.5 percent of the total generating capacity; nuclear power generating capacity is 768 billion kWh, accounting for 1.8% of the total; wind power made a 48.1 billion kWh of electricity, accounting for 0.99% of the total; while solar power is only 72.16 million degrees, the total generating capacity of 1/60000.
Last year's average tariff hydro 0.247 yuan / kWh, nuclear power was 0.43 yuan / kWh, wind power is 0.46 yuan / kWh, while the average tariff PV was 1.17 yuan / kWh. In contrast, the high price of photovoltaic power generation, small-scale disadvantages are obvious.
Therefore, he pointed out that, despite the current photovoltaic wind power then being copied all the mistakes, but although the domestic PV market started large-scale application has not yet commenced, after all, so urgently needed ahead of the layout, the realization of photovoltaic grid paving.